Who Could Dominate the Awards Narrative – Billboard

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for World Music Radio, record of the year for “Worship,” song of the year for “Butterfly”

What It Would Mean: That 2022 wasn’t a fluke. Jon Batiste’s album of the year win for We Are two years ago remains one of the most shocking upsets in the history of the Grammys’ top prize, as the genre-splicing polymath and former Late Show with Stephen Colbert bandleader upended stiff competition from Taylor Swift, Doja Cat, Lil Nas X and Olivia Rodrigo (among others) to conclude the 2022 ceremony. We Are won despite having only peaked at No. 86 on the Billboard 200 at that point, a niche project triumphing over blockbuster releases. And now, Batiste has the opportunity to do it again with his follow-up full-length — with some familiar faces, like Swift and Rodrigo, once again competing against him.

Although World Music Radio features guest stars like Lil Wayne, Lana Del Rey and NewJeans, Batiste’s latest album has thus far peaked at No. 104 on the Billboard 200 — but his presence was even more pronounced in the latest round of Grammy noms, with a record of the year nod for “Worship” and song of the year nod for “Butterfly” in addition to another album of the year showing. Batiste is once again an underdog against bigger names in the Big Four, but if he can pull off another upset — especially in album of the year — then the win for We Are looks less flabbergasting, and more like the beginning of an industry darling’s multi-year run of flower-collecting.

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for The Record, record of the year for “Not Strong Enough”

What It Would Mean: The most notable indie-rock W at the Grammys in over a decade, among other achievements. Thirteen years ago, Arcade Fire’s The Suburbs pulled off the upset over projects by Lady Gaga, Eminem and Katy Perry and earned the 2011 album of the year trophy. And while there are notable differences between The Suburbs and The Record, the debut album from Boygenius — the supergroup has been co-signed by more prominent industry elites, and was released on Columbia Records — a big night for Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers and Lucy Dacus would represent a triumphant moment for a critically acclaimed trio that has yet to score a Hot 100 hit, and introduce the outfit to a greater mainstream audience.

Really, though, a win for The Record in album of the year or standout track “Not Strong Enough” in record of the year would stretch beyond fame or genre lines in significance. Taking the Long Way by the Chicks (formerly the Dixie Chicks) is the only album by an all-woman group to ever win the album of the year Grammy, and an all-woman rock group has never won in the category. As Boygenius has helped multiply the respective fan bases of Baker, Bridgers and Dacus, a prominent Grammys ceremony featuring multiple wins out of their seven nominations (and album of the year in particular) could signify some long-overdue firsts at the awards ceremony.

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for Endless Summer Vacation, record of the year for “Flowers,” song of the year for “Flowers”

What They Would Mean: The industry coronation of an adult pop superstar. Miley Cyrus is still looking for her first career Grammy win after only scoring two previous nominations, despite boasting a catalog rife with ubiquitous hits and bold stylistic choices. “Flowers,” the lead single from Endless Summer Vacation, functioned as a pivot towards adult pop-rock following brash (and often brilliant) reconstructions like Miley Cyrus & Her Dead Petz and Plastic Hearts, and listeners responded in kind, as “Flowers” spent eight nonconsecutive weeks atop the Hot 100 to become the biggest hit of Cyrus’ career.

Although winning record of the year and/or song of the year for “Flowers” would be a huge achievement for Cyrus, taking home the top prize for Endless Summer Vacation would help her fully dominate the evening and cap off a career year. And don’t be shocked if Cyrus emerges victorious — considering its undeniable lead single, collaboration with Grammy darling Brandi Carlile (“Thousand Miles,” which is nominated for best pop duo/group performance) and general air of mature, time-honored pop, Endless Summer Vacation could occupy the same lane as Harry’s House by Harry Styles, another former teen superstar who had long been overlooked by the Grammys, which he took to an album of the year win in 2023.

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, song of the year for “A&W”

What It Would Mean: One of the most ambitious recordings to ever win a Big Four trophy. Even within Lana Del Rey’s wide-ranging discography, Tunnel stands out for its sheer boldness, with old songs revived and mashed into new songs, abrupt structural changes, surprising guests and themes of sex, religion and family explored with zero punches pulled. At the heart of it all is “A&W,” a seven-minute epic that could reasonably be described as “folk-trap”; now, that multi-part stunner is rather improbably nominated for song of the year.

Of course, multiple major wins for Del Rey would be significant for the pop veteran herself, who had six career Grammy nominations prior to 2024 but zero wins; in addition to five noms this year, she also appears as a guest on both the Taylor Swift and Jon Batiste full-lengths that will compete against Tunnel for album of the year. Yet Del Rey winning for this particular album, and/or this particular song, would signal a more open-minded Recording Academy, in which albums and songs are not blackballed from the top prizes based on a lack of traditional structure. A big night for Lana would also be a big night for pop auteurs unafraid to let their freak flags fly.

The Top Prizes: Record and song of the year for “What Was I Made For?”

What It Would Mean: The continued Big Four dominance of Billie Eilish — who became the youngest artist to sweep the top quartet of Grammy trophies four years ago, and has scored a slew of major noms since. For the fourth time in five years, Eilish enters Grammy Night with a song nominated for both record of the year and song of the year: “What Was I Made For?,” the somber, affecting ballad from the Barbie soundtrack, follows “Bad Guy” (which won in both categories in 2020), “Everything I Wanted” (which won record of the year in 2021) and “Happier Than Ever” (which came up short in 2022). That consistency is even more astonishing when considering the fact that Eilish just turned 22 in December.

Not only is Eilish already one of the most decorated young stars in Grammys history — 25 career nominations, including six new ones this year, with seven wins so far — but she’s also scooping up other major trophies along the way, as “What Was I Made For?” may earn her a second Oscar for best original song when the Academy Awards take place a few weeks after the Grammys. Another record of the year and/or song of the year win would feel like a sports dynasty tacking on another championship, leaving her fans and competition marveling at what Eilish has accomplished in such a short time.

The Top Prizes: Record of the year for “On My Mama,” best new artist

What It Would Mean: The mainstream breakthrough of a behind-the-scenes star. Victoria Monét is no stranger to the Grammys ceremony — the 34-year-old was previously nominated for her songwriting work on tracks by Ariana Grande and Chloe x Halle — but last year’s debut studio album Jaguar II has catapulted the studio veteran into the spotlight. The full-length featured guest spots by Earth, Wind & Fire, Lucky Daye and Buju Banton, among others, and combustible solo single “On My Mama” has been a crossover hit, reaching No. 35 on the Hot 100.

With seven nominations in 2024, Monét is the only best new artist nominee with another Big Four appearance, as “On My Mama” is up for record of the year. If she wins both and dominates a good chunk of the primetime ceremony, Monét’s ascendant career will reach new highs. Bonus points if she also takes home best traditional R&B performance during the telecast for her song “Hollywood,” which credits Monét’s two-year-old daughter Hazel as a featured artist; Hazel is officially the youngest Grammy nominee in history, and a win will undoubtedly result in an arena full of “awwww’s.”

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for Guts, record and song of the year for “Vampire”

What It Would Mean: A superstar completing unfinished business. Two years ago, Olivia Rodrigo scored nominations in all of the Big Four categories, following an explosion onto the pop scene in 2021 with debut album Sour and chart-topping smashes “Drivers License” and “good 4 u.” Rodrigo did win best new artist in 2022, but “Drivers License” lost out in both record of the year and song of the year, and Sour was trumped by Jon Batiste’s We Are in album of the year.

Rodrigo’s sophomore album, Guts, hasn’t produced hits as enormous as “Drivers License,” but reviews for her second full-length have been even more rapturous (including finishing as the Billboard staff’s favorite album of 2023), and the generally positive fan reception has helped Rodrigo springboard from theaters to arenas on her upcoming tour. Rodrigo will remain a household name regardless of what happens on Grammy night, but a big night in the Big Four would partially make up for proverbial money left on the table during the 2022 ceremony, and check off another major marker of success for one of the most exciting new pop artists of the decade.

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for Midnights, record and song of the year for “Anti-Hero”

What It Would Mean: History being made, both generally and personally. With Midnights nominated for album of the year, Taylor Swift could become the first artist to win the top prize four times, after 2008’s Fearless, 2014’s 1989 and 2020’s Folklore all previously emerged victorious. Swift is currently in a tie for all-time supremacy in the category with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon, each of whom has three album of the year trophies to their credit. She is already the first woman with an album of the year hat trick, but securing the overall record would represent another remarkable achievement on what is already an astonishing career resumé.

Keep an eye on the song of the year race, too: “Anti-Hero,” which now stands as the longest-leading Hot 100 No. 1 hit of Swift’s career, could end her drought in that particular category. Swift has now been nominated for song of the year seven times over the course of her career, which is itself a Grammys record, but has yet to secure a win in the Big Four category. As a superstar whose songwriting has helped define her longevity and global appeal, a song of the year win would surely make for a special achievement, both during the Grammys telecast and within Swift’s ever-expanding list of accolades.

The Top Prizes: Album of the year for SOS, record and song of the year for “Kill Bill”

What It Would Mean: One of the most successful album campaigns in recent memory. While all of the projects nominated for album of the year in 2024 represent varying creative and commercial achievements for their respective artists, SZA’s sophomore album SOS has leveled up every aspect of the R&B star’s career — earning the best reviews of her career upon its December 2022 release, becoming her first No. 1 album, spawning her first Hot 100 chart-topper in “Kill Bill,” yielding her first arena headlining performances. An album of the year win would be the cherry on top of this campaign for for SZA, who waited five-and-a-half years to release the follow-up to her sterling 2017 debut Ctrl, and proceeded to blow away even the loftiest expectation upon her return.

In addition to serving as an exclamation point for SZA, a major night for SOS would potentially make for the best showing for an R&B album at the Grammys in a quarter-century. Twenty-five years ago, Lauryn Hill dominated the 1999 Grammys ceremony, with her five wins including best new artist and album of the year for The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill. Like that stone-cold classic, SOS has been universally lauded and produced a crossover chart-topper, making a similar Grammys sweep more than possible; with modern R&B music on healthy ground and expanding into bold new avenues, SZA could serve as the face of that new-school movement at this year’s ceremony.